As climate change accelerates and water resources dwindle, several states in the U.S. are bracing for increasingly severe droughts in the next decade. From shrinking reservoirs to declining groundwater supplies, these challenges threaten agriculture and communities nationwide.
This article highlights the most at-risk states, key factors driving their vulnerability, and efforts being taken to address the crisis.
Texas
Texas will face severe drought risks in the coming decade. The rapid population growth, extreme weather patterns, and dwindling water reserves have put immense pressure on the state’s water supply.
The Ogallala Aquifer, an important water source for West Texas, has already seen significant depletion, with some areas experiencing a drop of over 50 feet since the 1950s. Experts warn that by 2030, Texas could face a severe water shortage if recurring droughts persist and no new water management strategies are implemented.
The state has recognized this looming crisis and is investing $20 billion in water infrastructure projects, including desalination, conservation efforts, and flood mitigation.
Arizona
Arizona is grappling with an escalating water crisis as record-breaking heat, persistent drought, and declining water reserves put increasing strain on the state’s resources. Over the past two decades, the Colorado River’s flow has diminished, leading to reduced water allocations and growing concerns about future supplies.
The situation is particularly dire as groundwater levels drop, streams dry up, and reservoirs shrink. Arizona relies heavily on the Colorado River, but its access is uncertain due to water-sharing agreements with six other states.
To safeguard Arizona’s water supply and prevent critical shortages, the Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR) is working alongside other Colorado River water users to implement protective measures.
Nevada
Nevada is one of the most drought-prone states in the U.S., with over 70% of its land area experiencing drought over the past two decades.
The state’s reliance on Lake Mead, the largest reservoir in the country, has become increasingly precarious as water levels continue to decline. In 2023, the lake hit a historic low of 1,040 feet, prompting emergency conservation measures in Las Vegas and surrounding areas.
The ongoing drought threatens Nevada’s growing population, tourism industry, and agricultural sector, making water management and conservation efforts more critical than ever.
Without sustainable solutions, severe water shortages could emerge, reflecting broader challenges in the American West. The Southern Nevada Water Authority (SNWA) has successfully reduced consumption of Colorado River water by 32 billion gallons between 2002 and 2014.
New Mexico
New Mexico faces one of the worst megadroughts in over a millennium, with 96% of the state experiencing dry conditions. Climate change has intensified the crisis, leading to declining water resources from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains to the Lower Pecos River.
The state’s agriculture, water rights, and wildfire risks are all under severe strain. Experts warn that New Mexico’s water availability will continue to decline over the next half-century, with projections indicating a potential 25% reduction in water supply.
In response, state leaders have declared emergency drought conditions and urged municipalities to impose water use restrictions. Without decisive action, the state could face severe agricultural and economic disruptions.
Colorado
Colorado’s water crisis is worsening as snowpack melts earlier each year and water reserves dwindle. With reduced precipitation threatening hydropower, farming, and urban water supplies, the state’s role as a crucial water provider for the western U.S. is increasingly at risk.
Scientists predict extreme droughts could strike every six years by century’s end, driven by rising global temperatures. The 2020-2022 drought, one of the worst in recent history, triggered wildfires, flash floods, and widespread environmental damage, underscoring the urgency of sustainable water management and climate action.
Colorado’s water leaders have outlined a plan to tackle climate and population-driven water challenges through reservoir expansions, watershed improvements, environmental restoration, and infrastructure upgrades.
Idaho
Idaho is increasingly vulnerable to prolonged drought conditions, with groundwater levels dropping and reservoirs struggling to recover. The Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer has declined over the years, posing a serious threat to agriculture and municipal water supplies.
Despite normal snowfall last winter, an exceptionally dry spring and record-breaking summer heat have pushed the state into unprecedented drought conditions. Water experts warn that Idaho could face a multi-year dry spell, making conservation efforts and sustainable water management more critical than ever.
Farmers, communities, and industries may struggle to secure reliable water resources in the coming decade without decisive action.
California
California faces intensifying drought conditions driven by shrinking snowpacks, rising temperatures, and increasing demand. The state relies heavily on snowmelt for over 30% of its water supply, but climate change has led to diminished reservoirs and prolonged dry periods.
With a population exceeding 39 million, urban expansion and agricultural demands—especially from high-water crops like almonds and rice—are further straining resources. Experts warn that without urgent infrastructure improvements, conservation efforts, and sustainable solutions, California’s water crisis could worsen.
California is actively planning for future droughts. The Department of Water Resources (DWR) has released a report outlining statewide efforts to prepare for recurring dry conditions and climate variability.
Kansas
Kansas, responsible for 25% of the U.S. winter wheat crop, is seeing wheat and cattle producers struggle due to water scarcity and soil degradation.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, over 75% of Kansas farmland is affected by multi-year droughts, with only 3.93% of the state currently drought-free. Low rainfall and high winds have exacerbated conditions, leading to concerns about crop shortages and economic strain.
Farmers are exploring new technologies and conservation strategies, but Kansas’ agricultural future remains uncertain without sustainable solutions.
Washington
Washington is experiencing more frequent summer droughts, driven by rising temperatures and reduced mountain snowpack. As of June 2025, 22% of the state is under drought conditions, with 55% classified as abnormally dry. Early snowmelt and arid spring weather have worsened conditions, increasing wildfire risks and water shortages.
The Washington Department of Ecology has expanded its drought emergency declaration, covering multiple counties in the North and Central Cascade Mountains and Puget Sound region.
To address the crisis, the state has allocated $4.5 million in drought response grants to support drinking water systems, agriculture, and wildlife conservation.
Utah
Utah is increasingly vulnerable to frequent and prolonged droughts, with severe dry conditions affecting nearly half the state. In 2025, Governor Spencer J. Cox declared a state of emergency in 17 counties, highlighting the urgency of the crisis.
While reservoir storage remains at 84%, southwestern Utah’s snowpack is only 44% of normal, raising concerns about future water availability. Experts warn that Utah’s droughts could become more frequent and intense, driven by rising temperatures and unpredictable precipitation patterns.
Without proactive conservation measures and sustainable water management, the state’s agriculture, communities, and ecosystems could face significant challenges in the coming decade.
Montana
Montana is facing worsening drought conditions, with snowpack levels dropping well below normal and severe dry spells spreading across the state. As of June 2025, Montana’s snowpack is only 50-70% of the median, a sharp decline from earlier in the season.
The Bitterroot Basin has seen an alarming drop from 75% to just 25%, while every SNOTEL site along the Rocky Mountain Front has already melted out. Extreme drought conditions are gripping Browning, while severe drought now stretches from Southern Bitterroot and Granite County to the Blackfoot Basin and Lewis & Clark County, reaching the Canadian border.
This crisis is fueled by inconsistent snowfall and record-breaking heat, making water shortages, agricultural strain, and wildfire risks more severe. Montana’s environmental regulators are drafting a statewide Climate Action Plan, which, once finalized, will qualify the state for millions in federal funding to combat climate pollution.
